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Sunday, February 28, 2010

Beware of March...economy.

A really fantastic article is up on one of my favorite blogger sites. Jesse's Cafe Americain always has great economic articles. Sometime a bit technical, but well worth the read.

Pictures of a Market Crash: Beware the Ides of March, And What Follows After
There are a fair number of private and public forecasters with whom I speak that anticipate a significant market decline in March. As you know I tend to agree, but with the important caveat that we are in a very different monetary landscape than the last time the Fed engaged in quantitative easing, the early 1930's. The biggest difference is the lack of 'external standards.'

He paints a not so pretty picture for the very near future.

The overseas (European situation) is about to get really ugly.

LEAP/E2020 is of the view that the effect of States’ spending trillions to « counteract the crisis » will have fizzled out. These vast sums had the effect of slowing down the development of the systemic global crisis for several months but, as anticipated in previous GEAB reports, this strategy will only have ultimately served to clearly drag States into the crisis caused by the financial institutions.

Therefore our team anticipates, in this 42nd issue of the GEAB, a sudden intensification of the crisis in the second half of 2010, caused by a double effect of a catching up of events which were temporarily « frozen » in the second half of 2009 and the impossibility of maintaining the palliative remedies of past years.

1 comment:

Carol............. said...

Depressing, depressing stuff we have going on. Hope there is some sun on the horizon soon!

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