TS Erika..track ...lessons learned.

As TS Erika quickly died out I noticed something. The track wasn't even close to what was projected by the models (except 1). In forecasting this one model would have been an outlier and probably ignored. This is why one must always remain vigilant...especially when it comes to nature. Nature doesn't always do what we humans want or think it will. The storm could have started to slide up the coast, taken a hard left and slammed into it. Would you have been ready to go with less than 4 hours notice?





Click on the above image will give you a larger view. Wind speed projections in upper right.








TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
800 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2009

...ERIKA BARELY MOVING...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN...ANTIGUA AND
BARBUDA ST.KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MARTIN AND ST.
BARTHELEMY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST OR ABOUT 390
MILES...625 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ERIKA HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST 3 HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
TONIGHT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.66 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT INFORMATION...

LOCATION...17.2N 57.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB